After a cold and wet winter, everyone is holding out for the first days of Spring to defrost their toes and shed a few layers of clothing. According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) newest climate outlook however, the season ahead may not be so cheerful. 

From the period of August to October, locals can finally start to expect some warmer days, but it won’t come for free. 

According to the latest climate outlook, the Western Plains is looking at an 80 per cent chance of above average rainfall, which extends to almost the entirety of NSW and Eastern states. 

Despite the potential for significant rainfall, minimum temperatures for August to October are likely to be above median nationwide. 



BOM Senior Climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio said that there are various factors influencing the outlook. 

“To our west, warmer ocean temperatures off Indonesia and cooler conditions off Africa indicate a negative Indian Ocean dipole is likely..this typically increases the chance of winter and spring rain for much of Australia” Dr Betto said. 

Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to remain neutral through the southern hemisphere winter. 

Four of the seven models surveyed by the Bureau, however, suggest La Niña could return in spring, with three models persisting at neutral ENSO levels. 

When all of the conditions collide with past weather events, however, Dr Bettio said that floodwatch should remain high.

“With high stream flows, wet soils, full dams and a wetter outlook, the risk of flooding remains high in Eastern Australia,” Dr Bettio said. 

BOM data suggest that despite the chill, winter across the Western Plains has been an average one in terms of temperature, failing to exceed any regional averages. 

With Minor to Moderate flooding still occurring in the Bogan, Lachlan and Darling Rivers, the outlook indicates that locals should only bask in the post-winter sun once they’ve completed their flood preparations.