Last year, experts debunked theories that the pandemic would see a baby boom in Australia, but the recent spike in birth rates has raised the question once again. 

19,000 babies were born in NSW this year from April to June, a nine per cent increase on state births at that time last year.

The increase in births isn’t exclusive to New South Wales either, with Victoria also experiencing a baby booming that is stretching their maternity system to ‘breaking point’, according to Victorian Health Minister, Martin Foley. 

Despite the birth spike, Australia’s population has remained the same, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), as the country’s population growth has fallen to near zero (0.1 per cent).

In fact, baby booms aren’t measured by number of births but by fertility rates, that being the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates. 

In 2020, the Australian fertility rate was recorded at 1.8 births per woman, an increase of the record low 1.66 babies per woman recorded in 2019. 

In smaller centres of lower populations, a baby boom isn’t so easy to recognise, and while some of the numbers stack up locally, it’s difficult to determine coincidence from trend. 

In Coonamble, for example, the 5-year age group 0-4 years old makes up 9.2 per cent of the population, while other 5-year age groups hover at around 5-7 per cent of the town’s makeup, according to the Torrens University Social Health Atlas. 

According to Sustainable Population Australia (SPA), however, the prospect of a baby boom isn’t one that we should be celebrating. The non-for-profit organisation were relieved to see that the recent increase in births didn’t impact population growth. 

“Environmentally, population growth causes loss of natural habitat through urban expansion and water diversion, and increases pollution, not least carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels,” said SPA President Jenny Goldie. 

“Socially, infrastructure never kept pace with the needs of a rapidly expanding population, and led to undue crowding in schools, congestion and longer hospital waiting times,” she added. 

For small towns with declining populations, it’s hard to imagine a time where population growth wouldn’t be celebrated. Rather than a strain on resources, more people power would be perceived as an opportunity to sustain and maintain communities, generating more business and filling local voids such as job vacancies. 

This year’s data on fertility rates, which is yet to be released, will be the true deciding factor of whether Australia is in the midst of a baby boom or experiencing a one-off spike.