A leading NSW politics expert has told the Western Plains App that member for Barwon Roy Butler may share the balance of parliamentary power with his two fellow former Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFFP) MP’s. 

In December 2022 the member for Barwon, Roy Butler and member for Orange, Phil Donato, announced their resignations from the party after Robert Borsack said after then party MP Helen Dalton left the SFFP in March she should have been "clocked".

Dalton, Butler and Donato and will all run as independents at the NSW state election in March.

According to David Clune, Honorary Associate in the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney, Butler may find himself as part of a block holding a balance of power or be courted for support to form a Government after a tight election.

Rob Borsack remains leader of a depleted SFFP. Image: SFFP.

 “My impression is that the government is on the nose and voters will swing to Labor. That being said (NSW Labor leader) Chris Minns' performance should be stronger. The surviving ex-Shooters may have a balance of power role after the next election,” he said.

After the 2019 election the LNP Government took a combined total of 48 seats, just one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

Butler took Barwon at the 2019 election after a big swing against the National Party which had held the seat since 1976.

Clune told the Western Plains App that LNP Government have waning popularity and said he felt Butler's prospects of keeping the seat would not impacted by his departure from the SFFP because independent candidates often get re-elected when they leave a minor party.

“If people voted for the party, as they do for the major party, dis-endorsement usually means political death. However, I suspect the ex-Shooters' MPs have a strong local following”.

This may also spell trouble for the future of the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers Party where state Upper House member Borsack remains leader.

In December the party has announced its "intention to repeat that success in the 2023 NSW State Election come March".  

However the party has since gone quiet on social media. No candidates have been announced for any seats. The 'NSW Election' section on its website contains nothing other than an application form to become a party candidate.

A spokesperson for Roy Butler told the Western Plains App that while he has left the SFFP "he still remains loyal to the fundamental principles of that party, representing the interests of law-abiding owners of firearms, fishers and people on the land. He particularly believes in the party’s core principals of freedom and equity for all citizens."

In October, The Australian newspaper reported that three unnamed National MP's were critical of putting party resources into gaining Barwon from Butler when the party needed to focus on retaining existing seats under threat from the ALP.

Last month Roy Morgan published a poll of 1234 people from NSW about their voting intentions at the state elections, it had Labor leading 52-48 in the two party preferred.

Butler will be pushing for greater investment in the region's roads in 2023. Image: Dugald Saunders.

Butler's spokesperson told the Western Plains App his relationship with both sides of politics remains strong.

"He is willing to talk to anyone to work on issues that affect his constituents as well as working more generally for the best interests of the people of NSW," they said.

He said if re-elected to the seat of Barwon in the NSW parliament he would push a number of issues including housing, labor shortages, education and roads.

Nationals candidate for the seat of Barwon Annette Turner declined to comment.

The 2023 New South Wales state election will be held on 25 March 2023.