In a shock for all chocolate lovers, the price of the delicious treat is about to skyrocket, thanks to record high cocoa prices.

Rabobank’s research arm has just released a report about high cocoa prices, which are putting strong pressure on chocolate producers around the globe. A cost pressure that will likely be passed on to consumers.

In the report, ominously entitled, Soaring Cocoa prices: The worst is yet to come, the bank says the main impact of the cocoa crisis still lies ahead, as companies hedge prices and supply contracts up to a year in advance.

“Significantly higher chocolate prices will likely hit shelves over the coming months and going into 2025, providing a major challenge for the chocolate sector, which is already battling a longer-term, structural decline in demand,” the report says. 

But it seems Western Plains chocolate lovers may not need to panic – at least not yet!

Monica Stevenson, who manages Bowser Bean in Condobolin said at the moment, chocolate prices were not the issue.

“We haven’t noticed the price of chocolate being a standout as far as price increases, but we’ve definitely noticed a decrease in package sizes,” Ms Stevenson said.

This tallies with findings from RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules.

To combat rising costs, Mr Joules said, chocolate manufacturers across the globe are adopting various strategies.

“These include ‘shrinkflation’, which is reducing package sizes while maintaining prices, and ‘skimpflation’, which is altering recipes to use less cocoa and more fillers,” he said.

“These tactics, while effective, are often unpopular with consumers.”

At Bowser Bean, Ms Stevenson said chocolate products are only a small part of their sales.

“We do a bit of everything here, from fuel to groceries to fresh food. Even the hot chocolates don’t really seem to have been affected in price at this stage, but you never know what’s around the corner,” she said.

Cocoa-crisis ahead?

What is around the corner, according to Rabobank, is a “cocoa crisis” where the cocoa commodity prices have hit their highest levels in nearly 50 years.

“Since January 2023, cocoa futures have shattered the calm of their previous trading range, peaking at nearly USD 12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024,” Mr Joules said. “This dramatic increase, fuelled by a global cocoa shortage, is primarily due to a disappointing harvest in West Africa, the source of 70 per cent of the world's cocoa,” Mr Joules said.

“The International Cocoa Organisation reports a 14.2 per cent drop in global cocoa production for the 2023/24 season, leading to a shortage of approximately 462,000 metric tons and the lowest cocoa stocks in 22 years.”

Zest Café in Narromine is a local go-to for delicious meals and hot drinks and agreed with Ms Stevenson that the “cocoa crisis” had not affected pricing at their outlet either.

Mr Joules said despite recent price increases, the full force of the cocoa crisis is likely yet to be felt on supermarket shelves globally.

“Due to the lag in the supply chain and existing contracts, the steepest price hikes are anticipated in the second half of 2024 and into 2025,” he said.

“This would inevitably lead to higher prices for consumers, particularly for dark chocolates with higher cocoa content.’