Liam Mulhall
21 December 2023, 2:40 AM
While a bit of rain and some climbing commodity prices have boosted farmers spirits in recent weeks, a new survey shows that most are still expecting a tough 2024.
The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey has been conducted every quarter since 2000 and asks around 1200 farmers across Australia their general sentiments at that time, as well as their outlook for the future.
The survey was conducted in late October and early November this year, and overall the results are a mixed bag.
Rabobank has cited the recent rainfall in November as a boost to farmer confidence, as with the increase in some commodity prices, however, outlooks are still relatively pessimistic.
Across the board 65 per cent of NSW Farmers are still expecting their incomes to fall in the coming twelve months, up from 53 per cent in the last quarter.
Similarly, just 13 per cent expect an increase in income, down from 18 per cent last quarter.
Across the sectors there is some differentiation, but overall it aligns with the state average.
The only real outlier is sheep farmers, who have a bit of Christmas cheer about them, with almost a quarter expecting a better year in 2024 (22 per cent).
51 per cent still expect a worse year over all, however, it is noted that this is down from 66 per cent last quarter ending in September.
This sentiment matches the ongoing price rise in the sheep sector, which has been steadily increasing since hitting a low in September, as reported by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).
In cattle and cropping it's a little less positive.
63 per cent of cattle farmers expect a worse year, of which 55 per cent blame falling commodity prices and 68 per cent blame dry conditions as reasons to expect a tough 2024.
Crop farmers are in a similar boat, with 59 per cent expecting a tougher 2024, up from 54 per cent last quarter.
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PHOTO: Rabobank Regional Manager for Central and Northern NSW Toby Mendl. SUPPLIED
Rabobank Regional Manager for Central and Northern NSW Toby Mendl says that survey results may have been better had it been able to capture sentiments following the November rain.
“Anecdotally, there has been a general lift in farmer confidence in recent weeks off the back of good rainfall received in central and northern parts of the state – and this may not have been fully captured during the period the survey was in the field," said Mr Mendl.
"Pastures have responded quickly to the rainfall which is providing improved confidence, particularly for farmers in the north of the state, albeit they are remaining cautious on what the coming season will bring."