The state’s Police Minister Yasmin Catley told Parliament recently that the Bureau of crime figures released on 16 September are very promising for regional NSW.

 ‘’Data shows youth crime in regional NSW has dropped by more than 12 per cent over the past two years," Minister Catley said. 

"In some areas, the decline is even sharper.

"The Far West and Orana regions - including places like Dubbo, Bourke and Broken Hill - recorded a 42 per cent drop."

"More than 1,500 young people have now been referred through Youth Action meetings, many of them Indigenous kids, and the work of those meetings is helping to break the cycle before it hardens into a criminal career.

‘’Youth Command officers are also working in PCYCs and schools, delivering programs like RISEUP and Pathfinder, which link young people with mentors, training and pathways to employment.''

The Member for Barwon, Roy Butler, says youth residential diversion programs are needed to ensure continued improvement.

 Mr Butler says many Barwon residents still face unacceptably high rates of crime.

For example, Barwon makes up eight of the top ten highest local government areas for domestic violence, and seven of the top ten for sexual offences, break and enter, motor vehicle theft, and malicious damage to property.

“Barwon communities have become gradually safer over the last 20 years, but there is still a long way to go until residents can live free from the fear of crime,” said Mr Butler.

“The state government has tightened bail laws, but I believe most of the credit for the recent youth crime reduction is due to police operations."

Roy Butler with Yasmin Catley in February 2025. [IMAGE: Roy Butler]

“The community expects people to be jailed for serious crimes, but we also know that it costs $1.2 million a year to keep a young person in Juvenile Justice and more than 80% will commit more serious crimes once they’re released," said Mr Butler.

“For lower-level crimes, magistrates should be required to send young offenders to residential diversion programs that are outside of towns on country, led by elders.

“These programs show young people an alternative path, with the potential to improve their own lives while also bringing down local crime rates.

“The NSW government included funding for such programs in this year’s Budget, and I look forward to working with local communities to get these facilities up and running,” Mr Butler concluded.

Four offence categories saw significant decline across regional areas:

• break and enter-dwelling (down 10.2%),
• break and enter non-dwelling (down 3.1%),
•  steal from motor vehicle (down 11.3%), and
•  malicious damage to property (down 6.1%).

The remaining seven offences remained stable statewide.

The Police Minister told Parliament tougher bail laws for repeat offenders and new penalties for “posting and boasting” are beginning to show results. 

"Mr Speaker, no one on this side of the House thinks these numbers are reason for complacency.

"No one is saying ‘job done’, in fact this is just an invitation to work harder."

‘’Some of the stories out of regional NSW are harrowing - families terrified in their homes, children involved in serious violent offences.

"But the latest BOCSAR data shows we are moving in the right direction.

"It shows that the combination of enforcement, diversion and reform are beginning to make a difference.

"We will not let up," she said.

Not all good news

The latest crime statistics from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) reveal significant increases in two major offence categories, sexual assault and retail theft, over the two years to June 2025.

Reports of sexual assault rose by 8.8% over the past two years, continuing a decade-long upward trend averaging 10% growth per year.

Since 2015/16, police-recorded sexual assault reports have more than doubled (up 136%), driven by:

• Increased reporting from adult victims (47% of the rise),
• More historic reporting of child sexual assault (42%),
• A rise in contemporary child sexual assault reports (11%).

Jackie Fitzgerald, Executive Director of BOCSAR, attributes much of the recent increase to improved reporting pathways.

“Since January 2023, victims have been able to report sexual violence to NSW Police via the Sexual Assault Reporting Option (SARO) - an online, trauma-sensitive portal. SARO has proven very popular, with 1 in 4 sexual assault reports now submitted through this platform,” Ms Fitzgerald said.

SARO reports account for 39% of the overall increase in sexual assault reports over the past decade. 

In addition, reports directly to police through traditional channels also increased, accounting for 45% of the rise over the past decade. 

Although reports for sexual assault have risen, the number of sexual assault charges laid by police has remained relatively stable.

As a result, the legal action rate has dropped from 15% in 2014/15 to 9% in 2023/24.

“While this decline may appear concerning, it’s important to understand that SARO reports do not trigger criminal investigations and therefore do not result in charges,” Ms Fitzgerald explained.

“SARO is designed to offer victims a more trauma-informed and accessible reporting option, not necessarily to initiate legal proceedings. While SARO is sensitive and victim-centred, it doesn’t necessarily lead to improved outcomes in the criminal justice system.”

Liquor tops the list of stolen goods

Incidents of retail theft rose 5.1% over the past two years, up from 28,114 in 2023/24 to 29,552 in 2024/25.

Over the past decade, recorded retail theft incidents increased by nearly 30%, growing at an average rate of 2.9% per year.

Liquor remains the most commonly stolen item, involved in 40% of thefts where an item was recorded.

Incidents involving stolen liquor have surged by 141% over the past decade.

Licensed premises are the most frequent targets, accounting for 21% of all retail theft incidents.

“Thieves tend to target high-value spirits such as whiskey and bourbon,” said Ms Fitzgerald.

“The average value of liquor stolen is $102, reflecting a clear preference for premium products.”

Clothing and footwear ranked second, involved in 24% of retail thefts in 2024/25.

This category has more than doubled over the past decade. Shopping complexes are key hotspots, with a median loss of $301 per incident.

Food was the third most stolen item, accounting for 14% of thefts, with supermarkets frequently targeted. The median loss in food-related thefts was $100.

Police response and offender profile

Police laid charges in approximately 40% of retail theft incidents, with the majority of offenders being adults.

However, 1 in 7 offenders charged was a young person aged 10 to 17 years.

“While adults make up most of those charged, youth involvement remains a concern,” Ms Fitzgerald said.

“There’s a public perception that retail theft is primarily a youth-driven issue, yet the data shows it’s a broader problem affecting a wide range of locations and product types.”