As summer draws to a close - one day longer than usual thanks to a leap year - it was likely not what you expected. Much of 2023 was spent warning of the hot and dry summer to come as El Nino approached and then arrived, and yet, the season wasn’t as severe or extreme as we had prepared for. 

Australian meteorologists were even careful to call it too early, declaring an El Nino event on September 19 after months of close calls, and several months after other international agencies had already called it.

But then the summer months arrived, filled with a confusing mix of weather. 

In December, Wanaaring measured their warmest days on average at 37.9 degrees, but Condobolin beat their 1999 record for highest December rainfall, receiving 165mm.

Both Gilgandra and Bourke broke rainfall records in January, and high rainfall was generally seen throughout the Western Plains. While being a hot January, no temperature records were broken locally. 

So what happened?

In short, Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto from the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre said that not all El Ninos are made the same. 

“El Niño is usually associated with warm and dry conditions, increased chances of droughts, heatwaves and bushfires in Australia,” says A/Prof. Taschetto. 

“Among other factors, the impacts of El Niño are more consistent during spring and over the eastern half of Australia – during summer, the relationship between ENSO and Australian rainfall actually weakens.”

“This means that El Niño is less likely to explain what happens to rainfall in the summer compared to spring,” she said.

 While summer may not have looked like a typical El Nino, 2023’s spring was a little more dire, with August to October becoming Australia’s driest three months on record since 1900.

“It’s also important to note that El Niño’s influence on Australian weather also depends on the type of El Niño, and on the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and winds over the Southern Ocean."

With autumn now on its way, the Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a 60-80 per cent chance for warmer temperatures and drier conditions in the coming months, particularly for eastern and northern Australia. 

Climate outlooks for the season ahead can be found here.