It’s certainly a conundrum - how can long-term unemployment be so high when we also have a shortage of workers?

Job-seekers in the Far west and Orana (which includes the Western Plains along with Dubbo and Broken Hill) are taking up to two years to find work, according to new figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The 132-week average for a job seeker to find work across the regions is the longest average since 2017. The average job seeker period in NSW is 13 weeks.

However, the new data also shows the percentage of unemployed people at 1.3% in the region - lower than the state average of 3%, which is lower than the national unemployment rate of 3.7.

Which leads to the question - how can unemployment be dropping, but the amount of time job-seekers are taking to find work increasing?

Professor Jeff Borland, an economist with the University of Melbourne, told the Western Plains App.

“With a rate of unemployment of 1.3% does mean you have a strong labor market. What the unemployment duration data is saying is that, unfortunately, unemployed people with the biggest barriers to getting back into work are the last ones who get picked up in an improving labor market - and that we, therefore, need to be focusing our assistance on unemployed people to those with the highest barriers”. 

“A big problem in Australia in the past decade has been the failure of the Jobactive system to provide employment services that really make a difference for long-term unemployed.” 

 Jeff Borland. Image: University of Melbourne.

He also said that because so many people were now going straight into employment after leaving a place of employment this skewed the figures a little so that those who are unemployed are the long-term who tend to have the most trouble finding jobs.

But it also points to the fact we have significant pockets of disadvantage in our region that still unable or unwilling to progress economically even when the economic conditions are good.

One hundred thirty-five thousand people in NSW were unemployed in May, the ABS show, the smallest number since January 1982 when the state’s population was about one-third less than it is now.

The revelation of stubborn long-term unemployment across the Western Plains comes amidst a national debate on whether the Federal Government should be pushing for more or less unemployment.

Nationally, the jobless rate is currently at a near 50-year of around 3.7 percent, with some business groups and economists saying this level of unemployment may be causing inflation.

In a recent submission to the Government, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry said it could be argued that Australia was beyond full employment.

However, the union movement is pushing for full employment, saying it creates favorable conditions for workers saying that there are many people who are underemployed or no longer actively seeking work and that the unemployment rate was still above the 2 percent average achieved in the three decades from 1945 to 1975.

Daniel Mookhey. Image: NSW Parliament.

NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said this week as he welcomed the state’s low unemployment rates but warned, “We will need to be watching to see the effects of interest rates and inflation” on future employment trends.

“Given the once-in-a-generation cost of living crisis we are experiencing, there is no room for complacency,” he said. “Jobs will always be a priority for this government, and strengthening the state’s economy is the underpinning for that.”

The latest budget forecasts do forecast a slowing of the economy and the unemployment rate rising amidst slowdowns in retail spending and consumer confidence.

Mission Australia told the Western Plains App it was concerned about why the benefits of higher unemployment had not flowed to the long-term unemployed in the region.

“People experiencing disadvantage should be provided with flexible, holistic and wrap-around supports to first address their challenges to entering employment such as housing and homelessness, mental illness, alcohol and drug issues, domestic and family violence and the like through coordinated support service provision,” they said.

“People who are unemployed, particularly those experiencing disadvantage, should be at the center of the policy design and development process, and there should be meaningful and continuous consultation and engagement of job seekers from diverse backgrounds and lived experiences.”